In 2025, Guinea Is about To Usher in The Expiration of The Interim Government, And The Wealth Code And Uncertainty Behind Bauxite.

01 Guinea is rich in bauxite resources, mainly concentrated in the northwestern Boke and Sangaredi regions, with ore grades as high as 65% to 69%. These high-grade bauxite not only has large reserves and wide distribution, but also has high mining and development value. For China's electrolytic aluminum industry, Guinea's bauxite is crucial, accounting for more than 70% of the domestic bauxite supply, while also having an important impact on the development of the domestic power industry.



In 2023, Guinea's bauxite production reached 120 million tons, with a capacity of 170 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of 68.9%. It is expected that the incremental project of bauxite in 2024 will be about 24.4 million tons, and the production will reach 144.3 million tons, and the production in 2025 and 2026 will be 167 million tons and 196 million tons, respectively. Guinea's bauxite is not only superior in quality to Brazil, Australia and India, but also because it is concentrated in the coastal zone, transportation is extremely convenient. According to 38% aluminum oxide statistics, Guinea's bauxite resources increased from 47.1 billion tons to 64 billion tons.



Major bauxite producers in Guinea include Alcoa, Alliance, Chinalco and Rusal. Alcoa's three-in-one project has 21 tonnes of reserves and a target production of 18 million tonnes in 2024. The UK Alliance expects 38 million tonnes in 2024; Chinalco's Bofa mine will produce 14.251 million tons in 2023; Rusal's 2022 bauxite production was 4.911 million tons. Guinea is expected to release at least 10 million tons of alumina capacity over the next five years. The government requires mining companies to build aluminum oxide plants within seven years of putting into operation, and to complete and put into operation in the tenth year. Uae Aluminum plans to build a joint venture aluminum oxide plant with the British Alliance, which is expected to be put into production in 2026.



Guinea has rich water resources, but the development of only 2%, the actual electricity consumption gap of 1 billion KWH, coverage is only 34%. Power supply may become a bottleneck in the development of the bauxite industry. Guinea's electricity growth is closely related to mineral extraction, and the proportion of hydropower will remain stable in the future. The development of mineral resources mainly depends on road, railway and inland port transportation. There are five railways in Guinea, one for commercial use and four for mining. In terms of ports, there are Kamsar port, Bel Air port and Kolacrakeri port, etc., the future infrastructure construction is a key factor.